AI: Time to cross the adoption chasm?
Can the Technology Adoption Curve help you know if and when to go all in on AI?
The Diffusion of Innovations, by Everett Rogers, first published in 1962 introduced us to the concept of the Technology Adoption Curve. Pictured above, the model breaks down technology adoption into 5 groups, from the innovators who are at the forefront of driving change, all the way through to the laggards who resist adopting new technology, until they have no choice.
Almost 30 years later Geoffrey Moore wrote Crossing the Chasm. In this book he built on the concept of the Technology Adpotion Curve, postulating that between early adoption and being a part of the majority there was a chasm. In other words becoming an early adopter, let alone an innovator in a particular technology domain takes focused effort and comes with risks.
Two illustrations from Business Illustrator illustrate this concept
Crossing the Chasm
Moore’s point is beautifully illustrated. One does not simply decide to become an early adpoter or an innovator, rather reaching this level comes with risks, and many companies fail to cross the chasm at all.
Of course to cross the Chasm you have to first want to cross the Chasm. Plenty of companies are happy to sit somewhere in the majority. Let the innovators and the early adpoters take the hit. Then when the road ahead is a little more well trodden (and less expensive), start down that path.
Is AI disrupting the Technology Adoption Curve?
A recent Forbes article “Disruption Of The Technology Adoption Curve: How AI Is Changing The Game” makes the point that one reason that the adoption curve can be relied upon as a model, in the software domain, is that users naturally resist the new. Every piece of new software released comes with its own login, its own screens, its own terminology and so on. Users, focused on getting things done, do not see this newness as a positive.
However the software of the future may not be web based at all. Check out this recent substack article
So in the not too distant future we won’t be browsing websites or using web apps. We’ll stay in our favorite AI Chat client and let it do all the work for us. When a new piece of “software” comes on stream we may not even notice it at all, it simply shows up as just another cool new thing that ChatGPT can do.
Of course only a minority of businesses are in the business of making software, but the point is that most businesses today are digital businesses in one way or another. Looked at from that perspective your business is already a software business!
My take: the technology adoption curve won’t disappear, but it may get seriously compressed.
So should I jump?
Whether to make the leap across to being an early adopter in AI (which would have to be more than letting your employees use CoPilot!) is a decision that every company must of course make for themselves. Both jumping into The Chasm and not jumping in have their risks.
If you decide not to jump, it may be time to at least know where your old track shoes are. You may not have as long as you think before you are sliding down the back side of the adoption curve!
